Despite the Forecast(s)

So New Orleans dodged the Hurricane Laura bullet last week, which instead slammed into Cameron and Lake Charles pretty hard. At least it was mostly wind damage rather than extended flooding. Of course, when a hurricane skirts to the west of you, you'd better prepare for rain, and lots of it. Also, you'd best stay flexible because depending whether you happen to be under one of the leftover rain bands or not, it could be torrential rain, or sunny blue sky. Either way, though, there will be wind. Having looked at the weather forecast for Thursday, I was expecting it to be raining heavily that morning, but when I awoke to find the street outside dry and the radar pretty clear, I figured I'd go ride, despite the forecast. So I got in a nice ride, which was kind of a surprise. The 17-20 mph wind was still mostly out of the south and southwest, so a some of it was blocked by the batture trees, and where it wasn't it was at least partially crosswind. Granted, there were a few miles where I struggled to hold, sometimes unsuccessfully, 15 mph, but then again, since nobody else showed up to ride, I wasn't inclined to push too hard anyway. Friday was kind of more of the same except that the wind was down to more reasonable levels. The thing about Friday's ride was my Garmin. When I turned it on to start the ride it seemed like it took longer than usual. I should have known. I got a couple of miles out and it just shut down completely. I thought it should have a fair amount of battery power left, so I started it up again - and it promptly died again. That's happened a couple of times now. I think that for whatever reason it doesn't shut down completely and it just drains the battery overnight. Anyway, I just used the Strava app on my phone to track the ride.

On Friday, Tulane sent out a COVID-19 update, announcing that for the August 19-26 period they ran 2,470 screening tests for students, faculty, and staff, of which 73 were positive, which would be a 2.96% (they "rounded" to 2.9%) positivity rate. 

Last week, we announced the final numbers from our COVID-19 return screening program: from July 27 through August 18, we administered 12,051 tests and identified 82 positive cases (47 positives from our testing centers and 35 from outside testing), indicating a positive testing rate of .68 percent. Since last week (August 19-26)*, Campus Health has administered 2,470 screening tests** for students, faculty and staff from which 73 positive cases have been identified, representing a 2.9 percent testing positivity rate. The current 7-day average positivity rate for New Orleans is 1.9 percent, Louisiana 4.9 percent. Since the testing program was launched, Tulane has conducted 14,521 screening tests and identified 155 positive cases in our community, representing a 1.06 percent testing positivity rate. 

I say "would be" because these were "screening tests" only, which is to say that it probably didn't include people who were actually symptomatic and/or were tested outside of Tulane's Clinical Pathology Lab. They didn't explain what "screening" means, which they should have. They also essentially compared the 2.9% rate with the City's 7-day average rate of 1.9%, which was really a case of comparing apples to bananas for the aforementioned reasons. Still, it's good that we were able to run so many tests and may actually be able to handle testing all of the students weekly (faculty and staff are supposed to be tested monthly under the screening plan). All of these numbers need to be taken with more than one grain of salt, of course, and I'm including the numbers from the Louisiana Department of Health, which by the way hasn't yet managed to update the hospitalization data for today and has been taking Saturdays off for the past month or so. Today the LDH reported 10,210 tests for New Orleans since Friday, which of course doesn't mean that that many tests were actually conducted since Friday, just that they were reported since Friday. There was a little footnote that said, "This includes a backlog of 532 cases with specimen collection dates as far back as 7/1/2020," without saying how many of the tests were backlogged, but I'd guess from the numbers that most of them were from somewhere in New Orleans (possibly Tulane??). It's all very frustrating if you're trying to use the most recently available data to keep on top of trends.

The weekend Giro Rides were fairly tame this weekend. Saturday's ride got shortened for me when Pat and Jeff both flatted while near the back of the group along Hayne. A few of us turned back to help, so we had a nice smooth little paceline all the way out to almost Venetian Isles, albeit and a significantly slower speed than the group.

This morning I noticed lightning over on the horizon as I rode out to Starbucks. Looking up at the sky at 6 am I could seen Venus and Mars and what I think must have been the ISS transiting across the sky. The streets were a little damp from some overnight rain, and once I arrived and there was a little more light in the sky I could see some ominous clouds. It was about as humid as it gets, but the ride went smoothly all the way out. As we headed back I could see a big, big black cloud ahead of us and figured we were about to get wet, which turned out to be true except that I'd use the term "drenched" instead of simply "wet." The ride back down Chef and pretty much all the way to Bullard was in pouring rain, but by the time we were back to Lakeshore Drive it had all moved on, leaving just some wet streets.

Undeterred

Undeterred by the 20 mph east wind and lakefront water level a mere two seawall steps from overtopping, the WeMoRi rolled out as usual this morning. I merged into the group on Marconi, and then was promptly gapped off the back on Wisner, took a short-cut across City Park, got stuck behind some construction trucks, missed the group by five seconds, turned around before the bridge to get back into the group, but then the break came blasting past at 35+ mph. I'll just copy Matt's report:

5:44 Robert’s parking lot. Everyone checked their temperature and had the proper face coverings. There were no hurricanes or virus’ to speak of. Long Arm, McDermit, and Reagan were at the front doing the man’s work on the way out. As we turned things got really fast Roofer and Half Carrot attacked with Ballerina boy. At Wisner we came to a complete stop and then it was Groupo compacto. As we strolled down Wisner the Cuban Missile couldn’t stand it anymore, he launched and won the KOM. I was coming up fast to catch him when Zion passed me. Yep, wearing a turquoise fanny pack. To retrieve my manhood I attacked and was free and clear until the red light on City Park Avenue. There were cries from the back “DON’T DO IT!”…... I did it. I weaved my way through some cars and took off to get the City Park Avenue sprint. I had a sizable gap and was later reeled in by Bottle Rocket and others. We were at Harrison at this point. I took off with Ice Cream Man on my wheel for the Backdraft sprint. "Not so fast" says Lisa “Doogie” Hauser. She comes around both of us to take away my manhood. Just when I got my testicles back they are gone again. At that same moment a homeless man with a porn mustache was watching us on the sidewalk. Someone called him The Toe. A group of 8 to 10 riders went around the fountain and then right by the swimming hole Half Carrot said “when are you gonna go for it?” It was at the moment I went for it. I didn’t realize Reagan was already going for it himself and I caught him. He quickly got on my wheel and then went around me. At this time I was seeing stars and sucking oxygen through my eye sockets. The group seemed to be closing in even though we were doing 35 mph. I went around Brett at the last 150 meters and shouted “I here, I’m queer, I’m loud and I’m proud!” Oh wait, that was at a different gathering. Anyway It was fun to be back riding with the group. It seems like it got faster since my hiatus.  

With undying love and yes I’m Covid free Dr. B tested me,
Le Artiste

Meanwhile, Hurricane Laura is heading well west of the city, which is good because it's going to be a pretty big one. Landfall is predicted for tonight. I guess we'll get a lot of the rain over here, but so far this morning it's been dry. Probably rain and wind for the next few days.

A Turn of Events

Marco and Laura, what are you up to? With new data from a flyover reconnaissance flight this afternoon the hurricane tracking models all freaked out and said, "Shit, this is too complicated. Let's just send both hurricanes straight to New Orleans. That's where they usually go anyway." 

It's looking like it will be a pretty interesting start to the week. If there's a silver lining to these dark clouds, at least the storms are still supposed to keep moving and not get much past Category 1 status. Then again, everything could change with the next model run, or the one after that. We should be able to get in rides as usual tomorrow morning, but by Sunday afternoon all bets will be off, and it'll probably be a pretty soggy few days punctuated by hurricane-level winds. 

Guess it's time to charge up the batteries, bring in the lawn furniture, and decide which Strava segments will be ripe for new wind-assisted KOMs.

This morning's ride was surprisingly nice. It was a little cooler than it's been lately, and I guess the humidity must have been down as well, because I could swear I felt sweat actually evaporating a couple of times. The Giro was fairly easy, as summer Giro Rides go, so afterward I stopped for a Coke with Pat and Steve and we headed out to the lakefront bike path for some bonus miles. I guess I should have picked up something to eat, because by the time we were back to Lakeshore Drive I was starting to feel a little bonky. Fortunately, it was mostly tailwind all the way back.

Double Trouble, Triple Threat

First TUCA ride of the semester - masked

It's been an interesting week. I've gotten in about the usual amount of riding. The COVID numbers have remained stable. Tulane started classes on Wednesday, and by the way there are TWO storms heading into the Gulf of Mexico and we're in the probability cone of both. 

They always seem to know exactly where New Orleans is

This is going to make next week a potential thriller, I guess. Fortunately neither of the storms are forecast to be super-strong (yet). Laura, the one I'm most worried about, is currently looking to be Category 1 and making landfall on Wednesday. Of course, hurricanes do what they want and usually don't pay much attention to the models, so anything could happen. 

Late next week is also when I'd expect to see an uptick in COVID cases linked to incoming students and school start-ups. Adding to the general stress level, I've been getting a number of questions about the status of the Tour de Louisiane, the answer to which is basically, "I don't really know yet." I did shoot off an email to my contact in the Covington Mayor's office to see if it was even something they would consider for the planned mid-October date. I seriously doubt I'll receive an enthusiastic "No problem" response, of course, but hopefully it won't be a "No way" response. We'll see. Candy is officially retiring at the end of October, but is a little bit terrifying to me for a number of reasons, but there's no doubt she deserves to start dialing it back. She's been getting things set up with Social Security, and then there will be all of the other things like insurance, medicare, etc., etc.

I've continued to track COVID cases and trends in Louisiana and New Orleans. The university seems to be trying to control the messaging around cases specifically at the university, and hasn't yet put up an actual dashboard with daily updates. I don't know if that's a good idea or not, but of course any void in the information stream will quickly be filled with accusations of manipulation, lying, and/or conspiracy theories. From my perspective, all I can say is that if Tulane can't pull off a mostly in-person semester, nobody can. The university hasn't left any stone unturned and has done everything I can think of to improve the chances of success. Of course, as one person pointed out, bringing in all of those students and expecting them not to have parties and pass around the virus is kind of like giving a kindergarten class a box of matches and being surprised there's a fire. All we can do is keep the fire extinguishers close at hand, I guess.

The weather for riding has been pretty good this week. A few mornings have actually felt comfortable, which means the pre-dawn temperature was below 80F. My longer rides both got cut short this week for one reason or the other, but I still managed to get in a reasonable number of miles and a little bit of intensity here and there. Yesterday I got to meet the Tulane riders for their first Thursday evening ride of the semester. That was kind of refreshing after a summer of no travelling and no racing and minimal contact with anyone new. I normally can't make that 5:30 or 4:30 pm ride because of work, but since I'm still working from home it was pretty easy this time. The team decided a while back to wear face masks for all of their group rides. If nothing else, it sends a good signal and prevents videos of un-masked students showing up on the neighborhood chat groups.

I'm pretty undecided about what to do this weekend, which usually translates into doing the Giro rides.

Hot and Busy Time in the City

Well, a week ago we successfully pulled off the LAMBRA Time Trial Championship. It seemed more stressful than usual as we approached the date. Although I never really thought the event wouldn't happen, there was always that nagging slim possibility that I get a call from the Parish or the Sheriff saying that we would have to cancel at the last minute. It was just one new additional thing to worry about, on top of the usual things like the weather, turnout, crashes, results disasters, volunteer availability, etc. I made a few relatively minor changes this year to try to reduce the chances of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. 

Masked

We went with entirely online pre-registration, relying on the electronic BikeReg signatures. I really prefer to have people sign their waivers in person when they show up, for a number of reasons, but we wanted to minimize paper-handling. We provided hand-sanitizer and disposable masks, which were barely used as far as I could tell, we eliminated the start holder, and posted results online only to avoid the crowds around the usual printed results sheets. We also eliminated the podium, although pretty much everyone who got a medal ended up doing a kind of ad-hoc podium for Ty, who was taking photos. Naturally, there were some things that didn't go quite right. I'd brought my home printer, since the little one we usually use for races had dried-up ink cartridges. For some reason, my home printer, which was working fine the night before, just refused to print (good thing we weren't relying on printed results). Back at home, it printed fine. Maybe it was the cable - I use it via its wireless feature at home. The other thing was the megaphone, which needed new batteries and was basically useless - good thing start times were sent out ahead of time. Anyway, it all went pretty well. There were some very fast times despite the August heat, nobody got arrested, and nobody went to the hospital.

WeMoRi Cool-down

Meanwhile, I've just been doing my usual riding routine - Monday and Friday solo, Tuesday and Thursday with a few others on the levee, Wednesday with the WeMoRI, and weekends at the Giro. Last Wednesday turned out to be a pretty good, and somewhat unexpected, workout for me. As usual, I waited on Lakeshore Drive until I saw the headlights of the group coming, at which time I turned onto Marconi expecting to ease right into the group. Instead, I suddenly heard Woody saying, "Come on, Randy!" He and Eddie C were off the front (without headlights apparently), so when they came by I put the pedal to the metal and latched on to the back, where I would stay. As they would swap positions, I'd just move over to stay behind whoever was coming back. It was really about the best I could do because they were going 27-31 mph most of the time, which was only slow in comparison with my heart rate. Things in this 2.5 man break started to unravel after the lap around City Park as we turned back onto Lakeshore Drive for the last section. I could tell that Woody was suffering already. After making the loop at the traffic circle and coming back over the bridge, we went another half mile or so and Woody dropped off as Eddie was on the front. I somehow made it up to Eddie's wheel and when he looked back I told him we'd lost Woody. I could kind of see the wheels turning as he contemplated his chances of making it the final two miles with no help but me and the pack now just about fifteen or twenty seconds behind. He pulled for a little while longer and eased up, so we were swallowed up by the pack with about a mile to go. It was fun, though, for me.

The Tulane "Arrival Center" entrance at the Hyatt

Last week I spent two days at the Tulane "Arrival Center" aka the Hyatt hotel, volunteering. The entire hotel looked like it was a Tulane University facility. All of the incoming on-campus students had to arrive at the Hyatt and get a COVID-19 test, attend various orientation things, and wait for their results, which were mostly being turned around by our clinical pathology lab within 24 hours. Only then would they get the coveted green wrist band so they could board the shuttle with one, and only one, parent. All their dorm stuff had been shipped and already delivered to their rooms. Not the usual move-in experience, for sure, but I have to say, it was pretty damned well-executed by the university. Hopefully the students won't be responsible for another wave of infections in the city. The campus itself is probably the safest place you could be right now, if it wasn't for the fact the students can, and will, venture off-campus, in groups. I'm just hoping it will all remain under control. Guess we'll see.